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An assessment of the costs and benefits of climate change mitigation policy can inform policymakers about whether such an approach makes society better off in economic terms. Changing the behavior of individuals and firms to lower their greenhouse gas emissions through climate change policies induces real resource burdens on society. On the other side of the ledger, reducing the probability and severity of various climate change impacts through a policy intervention would generate valuable benefits to society. Estimating these benefits requires an assessment of how much individuals would be willing to pay for mitigating various climate change risks. Constructing cost and benefit estimates, especially for such a long-term problem as climate change, is necessarily plagued by substantial uncertainty, and a considered cost-benefit analysis should explicitly account for uncertainty. Implementing a policy such that the incremental cost of the last unit of climate change mitigation equals the incremental benefit of this effort maximizes net social benefits.
Efforts to assess the costs and benefits of climate change policies are typically undertaken with so-called integrated assessment (IA) models. This approach integrates models from various relevant fields, such as economics and atmospheric chemistry, to better analyze the effects of emissions abatement policies. Given that near-term emissions abatement generates near-term costs but future benefits of mitigated climate change risks, the discount rate used in the model to compare the streams of benefits and costs can be very important. In addition, characterizing low-probability, large-magnitude events, such as losing the Gulf Stream or the melting of the West Antarctic ice sheet, can also play a large role in the determinations of whether a policy passes a cost-benefit analysis.
RFF scholars have focused on an array of cost-benefit issues. Research on uncertainty has shown how the costs and benefits of various policies can vary with the form of implementation (see price vs. quantity). Given how the uncertainty in the discount rate can play a dominant role in a cost-benefit analysis, RFF researchers have estimated long-term discount rates and characterized the uncertainty about them. In addition, RFF researchers are among the leaders in estimating non-market benefits, such as valuing reductions in mortality risk.

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Climate Policy Design Under Uncertainty
William A. Pizer
Discussion Paper 05-44
October 2005
Fellow Billy Pizer argues that intensity-based targets and a price-based safety valve can lessen the downside of emissions caps. |
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The Incidence of Pollution Control Policies
Ian W.H. Parry, Hilary Sigman, Margaret A. Walls, and Roberton C. Williams III
Discussion Paper 05-24
June 2005
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Carbon Mitigation Costs for the Commercial Sector: Discrete-Continuous Choice Analysis of Multifuel Energy Demand
Richard G. Newell and William A. Pizer
Discussion Paper 05-13
June 2005 |
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Modeling Economywide versus Sectoral Climate Policies Using Combined Aggregate-Sectoral Models
William A. Pizer, Dallas Burtraw, Winston Harrington, Richard G. Newell, and James N. Sanchirico
Discussion Paper 05-08
April 2005 |
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Model, Model on the Screen, What's the Cost of Going Green?
Hadi Dowlatabadi, David R. Boyd, and Jamie MacDonald
Discussion Paper 04-17
April 2004 |
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Beyond Kyoto: Advancing the International Effort Against Climate Change
Joseph E. Aldy, John Ashton, Richard Baron, Daniel Bodansky, Steve Charnovitz, Tom Heller, Jonathan Pershing, P.R. Shukla, Laurence Tubiana, Fernando Tudela, and Xueman Wang
December 2003
(A Pew Center on Global Climate Change Report) |
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Discounting the Benefits of Climate Change Mitigation: How Much Do Uncertain Rates Increase Valuations?
Richard G. Newell and William A. Pizer
December 2001
(A Pew Center on Global Climate Change Report)
See Also:
Discounting the Benefits of Climate Change Policies Using Uncertain Rates
Richard G. Newell and William A. Pizer
Resources 146 | Winter 2002
Discounting the Distant Future: How Much Do Uncertain Rates Increase Valuations?
Richard G. Newell and William A. Pizer
Discussion Paper 00-45 | October 2000 |
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Carbon Abatement Costs: Why the Wide Range of Estimates?
Carolyn Fischer and Richard D. Morgenstern
Discussion Paper 03-42 | September 2003 |
Are Emissions Permits Regressive?
Ian W.H. Parry
Discussion Paper 03-21 | June 2003 |
Calculating the Cost of Environmental Regulation
William A. Pizer and Raymond J. Kopp
Discussion Paper 03-06 | March 2003 |
The Near-Term Impacts of Carbon Mitigation Policies on Manufacturing Industries
Richard D. Morgenstern, Mun Ho, Jhih-Shyang Shih, and Xuehua Zhang
Discussion Paper 02-06 | March 2002 |
Mitigating the Adverse Impacts of CO2 Abatement Policies on Energy-Intensive Industries
Lawrence H. Goulder
Discussion Paper 02-22 | March 2002 |
The Distributional Impacts of Carbon Mitigation Policies
Richard D. Morgenstern, Dallas Burtraw, Lawrence H. Goulder, Mun Ho, Karen L. Palmer, William A. Pizer, James N. Sanchirico, and Jhih-Shyang Shih
Issue Brief 02-03 | March 2002 |
The Economics of a Lost Deal
Jean-Charles Hourcade and Frederic Ghersi
Discussion Paper 01-48 | December 2001 |
Ancillary Benefits of Reduced Air Pollution in the United States from Moderate Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Policies in the Electricity Sector
Dallas Burtraw, Alan J. Krupnick, Karen L. Palmer, Anthony Paul, Michael A. Toman, and Cary Bloyd
Discussion Paper 01-61 | December 2001 |
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