Two decades of debate and negotiation have given the politics of climate change a structure that will strongly influence the coming decisions. International policy, or lack of it, is being determined by the competition among three powerful blocs. The Europeans are pressing for early and forceful regulatory action to cut emissions of carbon dioxide. The United States is not convinced that immediate action is needed and is looking to voluntary cooperation and technological advances to reduce emissions gradually over the coming decades. The big Asian developing countries adamantly resist any policy that threatens their economic growth, but they are aware of the risk of runaway warming. The American and the European blocs are each quietly at work to try to persuade the Asian nations, and above all China, to join it.
The Kyoto Protocol has generated procedures and institutions that are likely to endure regardless of what happens to the treaty itself. These include an increasingly disciplined system for reporting emissions of greenhouse gases, the Clean Development Mechanism and Joint Implementation, which allow emissions transactions across national boundaries, and exchanges for buying and selling emissions permits.
The initiative is by no means being left to governments. Business is increasingly active. Scientific and environmental advocacy organizations have become deeply involved on a global scale, benefiting from the emergence of the Internet, which has made worldwide communication instantaneous and very nearly free. That phenomenon has created a new kind of public participation in a process that, a generation ago, might have been restricted to government experts.
Global Negotiations
In late November 2005 most of the world's governments met in Montreal, Canada, to decide what to do next. Resources for the Future was there.
Policy Collaboration
Much experimentation is going on involving not only governments but also industries and non-profit organizations. RFF, for example, is active in collaboration to share information and to provide expert advice and guidance.
Business Participation
Business corporations have emerged as important stakeholders in climate policy and drivers of decisions. For their strategic planning, they want to know what the rules are going to be.
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